Male at rest, Friday Sunset

It's a densely, densely populated metropolis but if anyone can remain calm, it's a Maldivian. Friday around sunset is the most relaxed time of the week. Here are a few moments from a walk home this evening. Snapped on the iPhone.

Copenhagen Accord

An article in the Guardian gives credit to the British Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband, for returning to the main hall at 4am, refuting the speech of the Sudan delegate and bringing the rebelling small countries round, by restating the amount of money pledged to combat their climate change issues. It was touch and go whether  the summit would end with no deal at all or a weak one.

A blog on oneclimate.net direct from the hall, gives another angle on those dramatic hours. There is no mention of Ed Miliband. The key moment, in the writer's mind, occurred at around 5am when the hall stirred and the Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed took the microphone. Nasheed was, it seems, the only head of state to stick it out throughout the night.

Would he side with his Tuvalu colleagues and the Sudan line? Among the developing nations and small-island states, he is recognised as a, possibly the key representative. Nobody would be ignorant of the fact that he addressed the United Nations climate change summit between the speeches of President Obama of the United States and President Hu Jintao of China. If he rejected the deal on the table, there was a very good chance that many other developing countries would have rejected it too (whatever the speech of Ed Miliband had achieved). And Copenhagen would have ended without a deal.

He did not side with the rebels. Apparently he was passionate yet calm and logical as he asserted it was best for his country to move forward with the unambitious and non-binding deal that was on the table. Though he greatly respected his colleagues' objections, he believed it was in everyone's best interest to accept this deal and work to turn it into something more ambitious and legally binding by the end of 2010.

Few have any doubts that the Copenhagen Accord is weak, fewer still doubt it is frighteningly unhelpful to the most vulnerable states. But with the deal comes an agreement to turn it into something legally binding, and hopefully stronger, within a year. The Secretary General stated it should be a matter of a few months.

So what is the deal? The accord makes references to the need to keep temperature rises to no more than 2C, and says rich countries will commit to cutting greenhouse gases, and developing nations will take steps to limit the growth of their emissions. Countries will be able to set out their pledges for action in an appendix. In addition, there are provisions for short-term finance of up to $10 billion a year for three years to help poorer countries fight climate change, and a long-term funding package worth $100 billion a year by 2020.

So the Maldives will get some money to fight the ravages of climate change. But with nothing legally binding, global temperatures will probably rise more than 2C, as major nations accuse each other of being the stumbling block.

No amount of remedial work will keep the Maldives above sea level, however much money is 'invested', if this state of affairs continues. Let us keep the faith with President Nasheed, keep the debate simmering and trust that work behind the scenes over the coming months will put legal flesh on this weakly skeleton.

How many resorts in the Maldives?

Numbers get confusing when we're talking Maldives resorts. And that's before guest houses start. I'm supposed to be on top of it here but it's awfully tricky to keeping an accurate tab on what is open, temporarily closed, not yet open and horribly stuck.

It is something of a relief to me to find out that even the authorities are a bit uncertain. The recent stream of resorts offered up for bidding, in batches of ten usually, started to include unusual offers like 'build a regional airport and we'll give you space on the island or a neighbouring island to build yourself a resort, or marina, or hotel'. There were also City Hotels to bid for, to be built on inhabited islands. (The anomaly of 'picnic islands' - that turn into mini resorts with boats or spa - has, I think, seen its day).

The new government has let it be known that other ways to get a resort island are up for grabs too, if you can input into national requirements - such as energy generation, health development or population movement, for example.

As recently as May this year the Minister of Tourism, Dr. Ahmad Ali Sawad, announced that the Maldives was seeking to attract "investors to develop 60 of its exotic islands in projects worth $3 billion", to be developed within the next few years. The details were few but seemed to suggest smaller, cheaper resorts or hotels that may or may not be on inhabited islands and would move into new areas like eco tourism and cultural tourism (staying with or learning from local people).

I don't think any of those 60 have been moved forward yet. However I am sure there are interested groups doing some sums and negotiations in the background. It is fresh thinking and almost certainly the right way to go. Although developers of expensive resorts won't have felt so positive towards it.

Because competition and, indeed, a shift in the market altogether, is the last thing expensive resort developers want to hear about right now. Apart, that is, from the sound of the government coming after them with a stick and financial penalties.

On 8 December the Maldives cabinet decided on measures to be taken on the 64 islands leased for resort development that were behind schedule. Contracts will be cancelled with the 39 islands where no work has yet begun. The other 25, where some work has taken place, will have to come up with proposals and present them to a new and impatient government.

Messy. But this economic downturn is messing around with most of us. I'll try to build a few accurate lists but in the meantime, let me pass on the news of the latest new resort: Holiday Inn Resort.

This is a re-opening of Kandooma. Positioned in the middle market, as per the trend, the owners are promoting its hi tech amenities, diving and surfing. Good idea and good luck. I've always bracketed Kandooma with Tari Village / Dhonveli as distinctly unblessed with natural assets but valuable for their surfing, diving and, formerly, very relaxed way of life.

Visionary

In 2008, whilst still an opposition figurehead whose only certainty was more harassment, President Nasheed envisaged a time when the Maldives would be powered by renewable energy.

He is  now head of state, the world is waking up to the urgency of climate change and the first big step towards renewable energy generation and carbon neutrality has been taken by the Maldives government. A twenty year contract has been signed by the State Electricity Company and Falcon Energy to build and operate a wind farm that will supply all the electricity requirements of Male, the airport and the whole remainder of North Male Atoll. That amounts to about 40% of the country's requirement.

If this is possible, why is no other country doing it? Because for one reason and another they don't think it's worth it, yet. President Nasheed says it is worth it and it is possible, watch me. He takes every international opportunity to urge others to move faster and further, to get radical, to get imaginative.

The bottom line is that the Maldives will disappear if the sea level rises and the corals melt away (with ocean acidification). No other country has quite that existential prognosis. Yet, still, an acceptable option for a middle income country would be to talk the talk and get given aid by rich countries who assuage their own discomfort and move on.

Take a look at this video. This isn't talk, this is action. It is big money and it is risky, but not only can it serve the Maldives, it can serve as an example to the world, indeed, would it be too strong to say it can shame more affluent countries into doing more, sooner?



The principle risk is that the price of oil will not reach and stay above $100 a barrel. In this case the cost of wind energy would not bare comparison, the citizens would be angry, commercial disputes would arise whatever the contractual agreements and the president would lose considerable authority.

If a barrel of oil maintains a price around $110, the country will be saving tens of millions of dollars a year, the public/private partnership will seem brilliantly conceived and other countries and blocks of countries will be emboldened to do something similar.

"Very soon", he said recently, "I believe we will see a major shift in technology. We will see another industrial revolution and in our minds those who are bold enough to venture into this revolution will be the winners of the 21st century". To my mind he is right, though calling it and moving so early risks a quick failure that is only rehabilitated by history.

Yet, again, at the end of the day it is not about money but about survival, and I mean the survival of all of us not just the Maldives. In other recent news, 17 feet of ice has been lost on Mount Kilimanjaro since 2000, 1 in 5 mammal species are on the red list and up to 70% of plant species are under threat of extinction.

Without wanting to eulogise this guy too much, he is  inspiring. He spoke at the UN between Presidents Obama and Hu Jintao. Let's see how he is listened to at the Copenhagen Summit. But let me finish with this lovely illustration: The Fualmulah atoll development committee agreed unanimously to launch a campaign to become the first carbon neutral island in the Indian Ocean. Hassan Saeed, atoll councillor and president of the development committee said, "It started with the president's announcement to go carbon neutral and we want to show that we are firmly behind him".

Underwater Cabinet Meeting

It was so ordinary yet so extraordinary. A regular cabinet meeting. Climate change was under discussion. A statement was signed by the president and each member of the cabinet. Funny thing is it all happened underwater. I was snorkeling above.

After the meeting, the president, his cabinet and the helping divers emerged at the water's edge and the president answered questions from the world's media. Copenhagen...350.org...what is your plan B?...The regular responses for answers but what the heck, it was a brilliant idea to do this and it came off without a hitch.

The statement on a slate signed by the cabinet will be taken to the Copenhagen Summit. It reads:

"SOS from the frontline. Climate Change is happening and it threatens the rights oand security of everyone on earth. With less than 1 degree of global warming, the glaciers are melting, the ice sheets collapsing...low lying areas in danger...we must unite...global effort...carbon dioxide emmissions down to safe levels of 350 parts per million..." 17th October 2009, held underwater on K. Girifushi.

No question, President Anni is a smart dude and many a nation would be better off with him at the top. Shorter in real life than on tv  : )